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Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov

Sports→TennisSettlement: Carlos AlcarazLiquidity: $197.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $576.0KEvent: Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov
100.0¢
Carlos Alcaraz payout
0.0¢
Denis Shapovalov payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$20.9K@ 89¢·0xd928…e44a

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Carlos Alcaraz. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Denis Shapovalov. This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 20d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Carlos Alcaraz@ 95.0¢20d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 86.0¢20d ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 89.0¢20d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Carlos Alcaraz; negative values favor Denis Shapovalov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDenis Shapovalov · $66.7K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $21.5K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $46.2K

Carlos Alcaraz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Carlos Alcaraz price. Denis Shapovalov fills are converted to the complementary Carlos Alcaraz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h88.65¢▲ above by 11.4pp
VWAP 7d88.65¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Carlos Alcaraz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$55.8K
90¢
$58.4K
85¢
$101.1K
80¢
$39.2K
75¢
$15.5K
70¢
$5.0K
65¢
$6.1K
60¢
$3.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLCarlos Alcaraz$19.5K@ 99.9¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—20 days ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$10.1K@ 84.0¢
coinlaundry0xe8d7…1252
🐋—20 days ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$20.9K@ 88.99¢0xd928…e44a🐋—20 days ago
SELLCarlos Alcaraz$10.7K@ 87.14¢0xd928…e44a🐋—20 days ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$10.0K@ 88.0¢0xd928…e44a🐋—20 days ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$13.5K@ 87.03¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—20 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.