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Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $58.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
36.5¢
Aurora
63.5¢
1win
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 32 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:399 trades$369.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:1win · $30.3K net·32 wallets(1🐋)·$101.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELL1win$10.8K@ 54¢·equalsignificance

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

1win pressure: $56.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$56.1K
6h
−$52.7K
tracked
$369.0K

32 verified profitable wallets: 1win · $30.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 83% · priority 51

Since latest market sweep: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from 1win or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 19:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against 1win.

•This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win Game 1 against Aurora.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between Aurora and 1win in the BLAST Slam Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against 1win. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win Game 1 against Aurora. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 8, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
xytest2 linked markets · $21.9K gross
0xheavy8882 linked markets · $19.6K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $6.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY 1win19m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY 1win@ 64.0¢33m ago
15m CONFIRMED +11.0pp
Latest book event: 1win DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $517 → $539 · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora; negative values favor 1win. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h1win · $56.1K
6h1win · $52.7K
24h1win · $52.7K

Aurora price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora price. 1win fills are converted to the complementary Aurora probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h43.0¢▼ below by 6.6pp
VWAP 7d43.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$7.8K
70¢
$1.9K
65¢
$7.7K
60¢
$11.9K
55¢
$6.2K
50¢
$28.9K
45¢
$62.7K
40¢
$146.5K
35¢
← now
$24.1K
30¢
$26.0K
25¢
$5.5K
20¢
$26.9K
15¢
$0
10¢
$8.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
$4.0K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora$10.0K@ 42.2¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELL1win$10.8K@ 54.0¢
equalsignificance0x1037…5b09
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora$10.6K@ 50.0¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xytest1win$15.0K
BUY VWAP 60.4¢·10 fills
0xf3ce…a57a1win$14.6K
BUY VWAP 59.6¢·4 fills
Sunshine.Smile1win$11.7K
BUY VWAP 54.3¢·3 fills
0xheavy8881win$11.3K
BUY VWAP 60.5¢·7 fills
0xe16d…5e30Aurora$11.0K
BUY VWAP 39.4¢·2 fills
Sunshine.SmileAurora$10.6K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
GeorgeRe1win$10.6K
BUY VWAP 57.2¢·4 fills
0xf201…527e1win$10.3K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.