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Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $1.8MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.9MEvent: Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
100.0¢
Aurora
0.1¢
1win
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 0%💡 27 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:530 trades$749.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage unavailable
official metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora · $35.8K net·27 wallets(3🐋)·$176.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAurora$39.0K@ 100¢·fantasy7788

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$749.7K

27 verified profitable wallets: Aurora · $35.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 0% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +54.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 530 tracked trades / 0 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape freshness is unavailable.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 19:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 2 against 1win.

•This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win Game 2 against Aurora.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between Aurora and 1win in the BLAST Slam Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 2 against 1win. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win Game 2 against Aurora. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 8, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
fantasy77882 linked markets · $88.2K gross
GeorgeRe2 linked markets · $50.3K gross
Sunshine.Smile2 linked markets · $49.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Aurora44m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Aurora44m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Aurora44m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Aurora44m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: 1win DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $60 → $318 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Aurora price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$141.8K
90¢
$11.9K
85¢
$21.6K
80¢
$45.6K
75¢
$27.9K
70¢
$14.0K
65¢
$22.7K
60¢
$28.2K
55¢
$260.8K
50¢
$132.6K
45¢
$28.5K
40¢
$6.2K
35¢
$7.9K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAurora$39.0K@ 99.9¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—10 minutes ago
SELLAurora$20.1K@ 99.9¢
callmenuts0xfa88…85a5
🐋—10 minutes ago
SELLAurora$12.1K@ 99.9¢
what-the-dog-doin0x1365…c82a
🐋—11 minutes ago
BUYAurora$19.2K@ 95.9¢
RewardFarmilka0xa8f1…fee6
🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYAurora$15.7K@ 83.0¢
jtwyslljy0x9cb9…32f2
🐋—26 minutes ago
BUYAurora$11.7K@ 47.9¢
IMAREALPERSON0x8c0b…7aa5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUY1win$13.9K@ 49.2¢
IMAREALPERSON0x8c0b…7aa5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora$10.0K@ 58.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora$15.0K@ 58.8¢
GeorgeRe0x87da…53d1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUY1win$26.5K@ 42.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUY1win$12.1K@ 41.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora$30.3K@ 59.0¢
gvrgb326552g650x676c…e139
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora$16.5K@ 59.0¢0xf3ce…a57a🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUY1win$12.0K@ 43.9¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora$10.0K@ 56.6¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora$27.3K@ 51.5¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora$10.0K@ 52.0¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAurora$10.0K@ 50.5¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Diabolical-Prize1win$52.3K
BUY VWAP 42.1¢·4 fills
0xe16d…5e30Aurora$30.7K
BUY VWAP 56.6¢·10 fills
gvrgb326552g65Aurora$30.3K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
Sunshine.SmileAurora$27.3K
BUY VWAP 51.5¢·1 fill
0xheavy888Aurora$21.3K
BUY VWAP 69.2¢·12 fills
RewardFarmilkaAurora$20.7K
BUY VWAP 91.5¢·2 fills
fantasy7788Aurora$20.0K
BUY VWAP 51.2¢·2 fills
IMAREALPERSON1win$19.8K
BUY VWAP 46.5¢·3 fills
xytestAurora$19.7K
BUY VWAP 67.8¢·11 fills
0xf3ce…a57aAurora$16.5K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.