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LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner

● quote 54s ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $665.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $857.8KEvent: LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
100.0¢
Team Liquid
0.1¢
LYON
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets46Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 20 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:280 trades$322.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Liquid · $30.0K net·20 wallets·$65.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTeam Liquid$40.1K@ 100¢·fhiwbijd

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

LYON pressure: $52.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$52.8K
6h
−$96.2K
tracked
$322.5K

20 verified profitable wallets: Team Liquid · $30.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +42.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 15 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from LYON or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 02:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 1 against LYON.

•This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win Game 1 against Team Liquid.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Team Liquid and LYON in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 1 against LYON. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win Game 1 against Team Liquid. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $128.4K gross
lolgosu2 linked markets · $84.4K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $75.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Team Liquid@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: LYON DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $231 → $70 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Liquid; negative values favor LYON. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLYON · $52.8K
6hLYON · $96.2K
24hLYON · $96.2K

Team Liquid price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Liquid price. LYON fills are converted to the complementary Team Liquid probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h70.8¢▲ above by 29.1pp
VWAP 7d70.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Team Liquid price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$121.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.4K
80¢
$1.0K
75¢
$3.1K
70¢
$7.0K
65¢
$10.7K
60¢
$15.0K
55¢
$5.2K
50¢
$110.8K
45¢
$36.6K
40¢
$7.3K
35¢
$3.4K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLTeam Liquid$40.1K@ 99.9¢
fhiwbijd0xb5a5…c668
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTeam Liquid$22.7K@ 99.9¢0xe2d0…7bbf🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTeam Liquid$10.2K@ 99.9¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Liquid$13.6K@ 52.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid$10.3K@ 51.6¢
fhiwbijd0xb5a5…c668
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLYON$10.5K@ 49.0¢
esportGG0xf070…ac55
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf201…527eTeam Liquid$27.8K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·10 fills
lolgosuLYON$18.3K
BUY VWAP 49.6¢·5 fills
Lakersfan111Team Liquid$13.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
fhiwbijdTeam Liquid$12.7K
BUY VWAP 50.1¢·3 fills
esportGGLYON$10.5K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.