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China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $354.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $472.4KEvent: China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz
100.0¢
Alex de Minaur
0.1¢
Hubert Hurkacz
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets22Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:144 trades$231.9K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex de Minaur · $3.2K net·14 wallets·$14.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHubert Hurkacz$28.0K@ 42¢·HectorHuang

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Alex de Minaur pressure: $32.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$32.5K
6h
+$58.7K
tracked
$231.9K

14 verified profitable wallets: Alex de Minaur · $3.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -41.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alex de Minaur or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Hubert Hurkacz. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Hubert Hurkacz@ 42.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -8.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Alex de Minaur@ 58.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex de Minaur@ 58.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Alex de Minaur DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $6.5K → $97.8K · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex de Minaur; negative values favor Hubert Hurkacz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex de Minaur · $32.5K
6hAlex de Minaur · $58.7K
24hAlex de Minaur · $77.5K

Alex de Minaur price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex de Minaur price. Hubert Hurkacz fills are converted to the complementary Alex de Minaur probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h69.7¢▲ above by 30.3pp
VWAP 7d69.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex de Minaur price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$52.1K
90¢
$486
85¢
$4.4K
80¢
$19.2K
75¢
$23.6K
70¢
$2
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.3K
55¢
$130.7K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlex de Minaur$12.5K@ 99.9¢
isco230x86eb…6566
🐋—2 minutes ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$15.8K@ 95.8¢0x09be…9c32🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$13.8K@ 78.3¢
neutralwave230x5b63…11a4
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHubert Hurkacz$28.0K@ 42.2¢
HectorHuang0x568a…04d9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$26.3K@ 57.8¢
askilika0x0979…8d9b
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$14.5K@ 56.0¢
kahe0x88d1…18da
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

askilikaAlex de Minaur$61.1K
BUY VWAP 57.9¢·13 fills
HectorHuangHubert Hurkacz$29.8K
BUY VWAP 42.2¢·2 fills
0x09be…9c32Alex de Minaur$16.9K
BUY VWAP 95.8¢·2 fills
kaheAlex de Minaur$14.5K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
neutralwave23Alex de Minaur$13.8K
BUY VWAP 78.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.