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LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $337.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $880.2KEvent: LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
100.0¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
FlyQuest
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection33Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets3Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 19 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:292 trades$442.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $2.4K net·19 wallets(1🐋)·$70.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNatus Vincere$103.7K@ 100¢·lolgosu

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

FlyQuest pressure: $146.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$146.2K
6h
−$156.7K
tracked
$442.2K

19 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $2.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +40.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 40.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from FlyQuest or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against FlyQuest.

•This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win Game 1 against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Round 2 match between Natus Vincere and FlyQuest in the Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against FlyQuest. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win Game 1 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 5, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xd016…61142 linked markets · $48.5K gross
fkcvffcjt2 linked markets · $45.8K gross
aomendushen0082 linked markets · $41.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Natus Vincere58m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 60.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -55.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: FlyQuest UP 6.8pp · near-book depth $90 → $26 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor FlyQuest. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFlyQuest · $146.2K
6hFlyQuest · $156.7K
24hFlyQuest · $156.7K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. FlyQuest fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h70.4¢▲ above by 29.6pp
VWAP 7d70.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$223.0K
90¢
$5.0K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.3K
60¢
$11.1K
55¢
$63.7K
50¢
$22.6K
45¢
$42.8K
40¢
$114
35¢
$533
30¢
$3.9K
25¢
$4.8K
20¢
$1.3K
15¢
$17.8K
10¢
$4.8K
5¢
$23.3K
0¢
$16.1K

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNatus Vincere$22.0K@ 99.9¢0xd016…6114🐋—8 minutes ago
SELLNatus Vincere$103.7K@ 99.9¢
lolgosu0x6346…2e24
🐋—37 minutes ago
SELLNatus Vincere$18.1K@ 99.9¢
aomendushen0080xd3f1…7535
🐋—44 minutes ago
SELLNatus Vincere$18.7K@ 99.9¢
Lucas1tb0xe1f3…5402
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$21.8K@ 99.1¢0xd016…6114🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$10.1K@ 58.0¢
lolgosu0x6346…2e24
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lolgosuNatus Vincere$27.7K
BUY VWAP 56.9¢·5 fills
0xd016…6114Natus Vincere$21.8K
BUY VWAP 99.1¢·1 fill
JaJa888FlyQuest$12.8K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·2 fills
fkcvffcjtNatus Vincere$12.5K
BUY VWAP 47.2¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.