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Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Taro Daniel vs Shintaro Mochizuki

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $77.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $110.8KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Taro Daniel vs Shintaro Mochizuki
26.5¢
Taro Daniel payout
73.5¢
Shintaro Mochizuki payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:32 trades$45.7K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 75 min agoofficial metadata 42 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Taro Daniel · $3.6K net·4 wallets·$6.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLShintaro Mochizuki$13.9K@ 100¢·Smile168168

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taro Daniel and Shintaro Mochizuki in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taro Daniel' if Taro Daniel advances against Shintaro Mochizuki. This market will resolve to 'Shintaro Mochizuki' if Shintaro Mochizuki advances against Taro Daniel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 58m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 58m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Taro Daniel; negative values favor Shintaro Mochizuki. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTaro Daniel · $27.0K
6hTaro Daniel · $18.4K
24hTaro Daniel · $22.2K

Taro Daniel price VWAP

Volume-weighted Taro Daniel price. Shintaro Mochizuki fills are converted to the complementary Taro Daniel probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current26.5¢
VWAP 24h23.0¢▲ above by 3.5pp
VWAP 7d23.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Taro Daniel price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.3K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$10.8K
55¢
$3.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$351
20¢
$123
15¢
$29
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.3K
0¢
$28.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLShintaro Mochizuki$11.0K@ 99.9¢
Smile1681680xbb2f…7d73
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLShintaro Mochizuki$13.9K@ 99.9¢
Smile1681680xbb2f…7d73
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.