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Braga: Mackenzie McDonald vs Ryan Nijboer

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $31.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $478.3KEvent: Braga: Mackenzie McDonald vs Ryan Nijboer
43.0¢
Mackenzie McDonald
57.0¢
Ryan Nijboer
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets68Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:192 trades$238.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ryan Nijboer · $7.6K net·11 wallets·$13.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRyan Nijboer$30.0K@ 67¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Ryan Nijboer pressure: $12.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.3K
6h
−$75.7K
tracked
$238.5K

11 verified profitable wallets: Ryan Nijboer · $7.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 87% · priority 58

Since latest large flow: +25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable SELL price moved 25.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Ryan Nijboer or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mackenzie McDonald and Ryan Nijboer in the Braga, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mackenzie McDonald' if Mackenzie McDonald advances against Ryan Nijboer. This market will resolve to 'Ryan Nijboer' if Ryan Nijboer advances against Mackenzie McDonald. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Ryan Nijboer1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWSELL Ryan Nijboer@ 81.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Ryan Nijboer2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Ryan Nijboer2h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Ryan Nijboer UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $9.8K → $4.4K · 36s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mackenzie McDonald; negative values favor Ryan Nijboer. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRyan Nijboer · $12.3K
6hRyan Nijboer · $75.7K
24hRyan Nijboer · $75.7K

Mackenzie McDonald price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mackenzie McDonald price. Ryan Nijboer fills are converted to the complementary Mackenzie McDonald probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.0¢
VWAP 24h31.8¢▲ above by 11.2pp
VWAP 7d31.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mackenzie McDonald price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$303
80¢
$85
75¢
$10.5K
70¢
$1.8K
65¢
$2.3K
60¢
$725
55¢
$5.3K
50¢
$2.9K
45¢
$9.0K
40¢
← now
$40.5K
35¢
$13.9K
30¢
$55.1K
25¢
$31.9K
20¢
$4.8K
15¢
$15.0K
10¢
$44.3K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLRyan Nijboer$29.4K@ 86.8¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRyan Nijboer$29.0K@ 71.8¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRyan Nijboer$30.0K@ 66.7¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRyan Nijboer$10.0K@ 57.6¢
0000.0x49e0…9af1
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LuzzzerRyan Nijboer$37.8K
BUY VWAP 70.3¢·2 fills
kkookkooRyan Nijboer$30.0K
BUY VWAP 66.7¢·1 fill
0000.Ryan Nijboer$24.0K
BUY VWAP 58.4¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.