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Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $2.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $367.9KEvent: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
64.0¢
Spirit
36.0¢
M80
6.0¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets82Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution62Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:65 trades$148.6K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 38s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Spirit · $5.1K net·4 wallets·$6.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYM80$38.0K@ 38¢·juice-fruit

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$80
6h
+$24.1K
tracked
$148.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: Spirit · $5.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
6.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 6.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 00:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than M80 in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "M80".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between Spirit and M80 in the ESL Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than M80 in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "M80". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 21, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 7, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Noprajsk2 linked markets · $552.7K gross
0x29b5…cc6c2 linked markets · $43.4K gross
cruzNBA2 linked markets · $28.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Spirit1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 64.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY M80@ 38.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h INVALIDATED -18.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY M80@ 38.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -10.0pp
Latest book event: M80 UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $468 → $1.3K · 112s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spirit; negative values favor M80. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hM80 · $80
6hSpirit · $24.1K
24hSpirit · $21.2K

Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spirit price. M80 fills are converted to the complementary Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.0¢
VWAP 24h62.9¢▲ above by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d62.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$13
70¢
$565
65¢
$8.1K
60¢
← now
$139.9K
55¢
$21
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSpirit$20.0K@ 63.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYM80$38.0K@ 38.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYM80$17.6K@ 37.0¢
lllllllIlll0xe40e…9770
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYSpirit$12.4K@ 63.0¢
equalsignificance0x1037…5b09
🐋—about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 - Map 1 Winner
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

juice-fruitM80$38.0K
BUY VWAP 38.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462Spirit$20.0K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill
IostfdSpirit$19.9K
BUY VWAP 63.8¢·4 fills
lllllllIlllM80$17.6K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill
equalsignificanceSpirit$12.4K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.