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Spread: Appalachian State (-9.5)

● quote 20s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $82.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $62.8KEvent: Old Dominion vs. Appalachian State
51.5¢
Appalachian State
48.5¢
Old Dominion
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$30.1K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 128 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAppalachian State$21.7K@ 51¢·Elaran1993

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$466
tracked
$30.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: Appalachian State · $29.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 128 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Appalachian State" if Appalachian State win the game by 10 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Old Dominion".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 10 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Appalachian State" if Appalachian State win the game by 10 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Old Dominion". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Appalachian State@ 52.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Appalachian State; negative values favor Old Dominion. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAppalachian State · $0
6hAppalachian State · $466
24hAppalachian State · $30.1K

Appalachian State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Appalachian State price. Old Dominion fills are converted to the complementary Appalachian State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d51.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Appalachian State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$30.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAppalachian State$21.7K@ 51.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Elaran1993Appalachian State$29.5K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.