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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli

Sports→TennisSettlement: Adrian MannarinoLiquidity: $886.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $491.8KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli
100.0¢
Adrian Mannarino payout
0.0¢
Flavio Cobolli payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:217 trades$180.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 72 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Adrian Mannarino · $17.0K net·12 wallets·$27.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFlavio Cobolli$25.5K@ 65¢·kkookkoo

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Adrian Mannarino. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-17 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Mannarino and Flavio Cobolli in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Flavio Cobolli. This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli' if Flavio Cobolli advances against Adrian Mannarino. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 12m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 12m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Flavio Cobolli@ 64.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -35.0pp
Latest book event: Adrian Mannarino UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $48.7K → $248 · 8s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Adrian Mannarino; negative values favor Flavio Cobolli. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFlavio Cobolli · $12.9K
6hFlavio Cobolli · $29.9K
24hFlavio Cobolli · $33.4K

Adrian Mannarino price VWAP

Volume-weighted Adrian Mannarino price. Flavio Cobolli fills are converted to the complementary Adrian Mannarino probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h46.3¢▲ above by 53.7pp
VWAP 7d46.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Adrian Mannarino price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$28.2K
90¢
$0
85¢
$5.0K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$18.8K
65¢
$10.1K
60¢
$3.4K
55¢
$878
50¢
$8.1K
45¢
$21.2K
40¢
$24.5K
35¢
$32.7K
30¢
$26.6K
25¢
$1.2K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFlavio Cobolli$12.0K@ 55.0¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFlavio Cobolli$25.5K@ 65.2¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooFlavio Cobolli$25.5K
BUY VWAP 65.2¢·1 fill
LuzzzerFlavio Cobolli$12.0K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
IlliascaFlavio Cobolli$12.0K
BUY VWAP 57.8¢·4 fills
ferrariChampions2026Adrian Mannarino$10.4K
BUY VWAP 72.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.