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Thunder vs. Hawks

● quote 14s ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: 4 daysLiquidity: $68.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $231.2KEvent: Thunder vs. Hawks
36.1¢
Thunder
63.9¢
Hawks
1.2¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
24h sample:94 trades$114.6K trackedsource coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHawks$2.0K@ 99¢·0xa0f2…1848

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$8
6h
−$103.9K
tracked
$114.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.2¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: -32.5pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 59 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-12 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder".

•If the Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Hawks".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 12 at 7:00PM ET: If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder". If the Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Hawks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Hawks@ 97.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -40.1pp1h INVALIDATED -27.5pp
Latest book event: Thunder DOWN 16.0pp · near-book depth $1.2K → $1.2K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Thunder; negative values favor Hawks. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHawks · $8
6hHawks · $103.9K
24hHawks · $106.0K

Thunder price VWAP

Volume-weighted Thunder price. Hawks fills are converted to the complementary Thunder probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.1¢
VWAP 24h7.0¢▲ above by 29.1pp
VWAP 7d7.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Thunder price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$1.1K
85¢
$3.2K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.0K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$11
35¢
← now
$61
30¢
$1.6K
25¢
$130
20¢
$1.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$5.1K
0¢
$101.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xa0f2…1848Hawks$109.1K
BUY VWAP 96.4¢·67 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.