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Spread: New Mexico (-14.5)

Sports→American FootballCloses: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $7.7KEvent: New Mexico vs. Hawai'i
0.0¢
New Mexico
0.0¢
Hawai'i
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$3.8K trackedsource coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 167 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew Mexico$3.8K@ 49¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$3.8K
tracked
$3.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: New Mexico · $3.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 167 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if New Mexico win the game by 15 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Hawai'i".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 17 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if New Mexico win the game by 15 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Hawai'i". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $13.7K gross
mooseborzoii2 linked markets · $1.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor New Mexico; negative values favor Hawai'i. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNew Mexico · $0
6hNew Mexico · $3.8K
24hNew Mexico · $3.8K

New Mexico price VWAP

Volume-weighted New Mexico price. Hawai'i fills are converted to the complementary New Mexico probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h49.0¢▼ below by NaNpp
VWAP 7d49.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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New Mexico price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Hawai'i (-7.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: New Mexico (-17.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.