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Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $11.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $442.0KEvent: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
80.5¢
Vitality
19.5¢
PARIVISION
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection28Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:68 trades$188.6K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 25s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:PARIVISION · $5.2K net·2 wallets·$10.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVitality$40.0K@ 58¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Vitality pressure: $53.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$53.3K
6h
+$38.5K
tracked
$188.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: PARIVISION · $5.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 25.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Vitality or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 17:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality wins 2 or more maps than PARIVISION in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "PARIVISION".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 2 match between Vitality and PARIVISION in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality wins 2 or more maps than PARIVISION in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "PARIVISION". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 23, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 9, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $70.1K gross
BrotherObama2 linked markets · $45.0K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $24.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Vitality35m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Vitality@ 57.0¢52m ago
15m CONFIRMED +9.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY PARIVISION@ 45.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -28.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY PARIVISION@ 46.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -25.0pp
Latest book event: PARIVISION DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $15.4K → $832 · 117s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Vitality; negative values favor PARIVISION. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVitality · $53.3K
6hVitality · $38.5K
24hVitality · $46.6K

Vitality price VWAP

Volume-weighted Vitality price. PARIVISION fills are converted to the complementary Vitality probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current80.5¢
VWAP 24h56.9¢▲ above by 23.6pp
VWAP 7d56.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Vitality price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
← now
$100
75¢
$2.2K
70¢
$26
65¢
$6.1K
60¢
$0
55¢
$180.2K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYVitality$40.0K@ 57.9¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPARIVISION$30.1K@ 45.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYPARIVISION$19.9K@ 44.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYVitality$10.3K@ 57.0¢
FeedTheBigBird0x84ec…72c1
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYVitality$12.8K@ 56.0¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111PARIVISION$53.9K
BUY VWAP 44.6¢·3 fills
BrotherObamaVitality$40.0K
BUY VWAP 57.9¢·1 fill
StasPandaVitality$12.8K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
FeedTheBigBirdVitality$10.3K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.