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Dana White's Contender Series: Will Rentz vs. Luis Francischinelli (Welterweight, Main Card)

● quote 532 min ago
Sports→Combat SportsCloses: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Dana White's Contender Series: Will Rentz vs. Luis Francischinelli (Welterweight, Main Card)
31.5¢
Will Rentz
68.5¢
Luis Francischinelli
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$69 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 397 min agoofficial metadata 1890 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Luis Francischinelli · $43 net·2 wallets·$43 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$69

2 verified profitable wallets: Luis Francischinelli · $43 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 532 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 397 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1890 minutes old.
  • •Less than 9h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Will Rentz" if Will Rentz is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luis Francischinelli at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10, scheduled for October 13, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Luis Francischinelli" if Luis Francischinelli is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Will Rentz" if Will Rentz is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luis Francischinelli at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10, scheduled for October 13, 2026. It will resolve to "Luis Francischinelli" if Luis Francischinelli is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 27, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Will Rentz; negative values favor Luis Francischinelli. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWill Rentz · $0
6hWill Rentz · $0
24hLuis Francischinelli · $69

Will Rentz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Will Rentz price. Luis Francischinelli fills are converted to the complementary Will Rentz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current31.5¢
VWAP 24h31.1¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d31.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Will Rentz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$70
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.