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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta

● quote 16s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $799.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $378.4KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta
0.1¢
Alejandro Tabilo
100.0¢
Pablo Carreno Busta
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:129 trades$130.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alejandro Tabilo · $85 net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$39.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLPablo Carreno Busta$25.9K@ 99¢·Kkunn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Alejandro Tabilo pressure: $19.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$19.6K
6h
+$32.6K
tracked
$130.5K

10 verified profitable wallets: Alejandro Tabilo · $85 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alejandro Tabilo or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Tabilo and Pablo Carreno Busta in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Alejandro Tabilo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Pablo Carreno Busta UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $332 → $55 · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alejandro Tabilo; negative values favor Pablo Carreno Busta. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlejandro Tabilo · $19.6K
6hAlejandro Tabilo · $32.6K
24hAlejandro Tabilo · $42.3K

Alejandro Tabilo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alejandro Tabilo price. Pablo Carreno Busta fills are converted to the complementary Alejandro Tabilo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h36.6¢▼ below by 36.5pp
VWAP 7d36.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alejandro Tabilo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$2.3K
90¢
$22
85¢
$38
80¢
$20.7K
75¢
$4.6K
70¢
$1.8K
65¢
$2.1K
60¢
$16.0K
55¢
$7.6K
50¢
$4.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$5
25¢
$318
20¢
$12.6K
15¢
$6.6K
10¢
$2.7K
5¢
$3.3K
0¢
← now
$43.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLPablo Carreno Busta$25.9K@ 99.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—25 minutes ago
BUYAlejandro Tabilo$11.3K@ 61.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesPablo Carreno Busta$11.6K
BUY VWAP 78.3¢·7 fills
ferrariChampions2026Alejandro Tabilo$11.4K
BUY VWAP 60.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.