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W50 Lexington, SC: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon

● quote 99 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $13.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $54.9KEvent: W50 Lexington, SC: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon
99.9¢
Kaitlyn Carnicella
0.1¢
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets53Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$10.8K trackedsource coverage 20%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 345 min agoofficial metadata 44s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kaitlyn Carnicella · $8.6K net·2 wallets·$10.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKaitlyn Carnicella$4.8K@ 71¢·xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$10.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: Kaitlyn Carnicella · $8.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 99 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 345 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 14:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Kaitlyn Carnicella and Lucciana Perez Alarcon in the W50 Lexington, SC, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kaitlyn Carnicella' if Kaitlyn Carnicella advances against Lucciana Perez Alarcon. This market will resolve to 'Lucciana Perez Alarcon' if Lucciana Perez Alarcon advances against Kaitlyn Carnicella. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Kaitlyn Carnicella; negative values favor Lucciana Perez Alarcon. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKaitlyn Carnicella · $0
6hKaitlyn Carnicella · $0
24hKaitlyn Carnicella · $8.6K

Kaitlyn Carnicella price VWAP

Volume-weighted Kaitlyn Carnicella price. Lucciana Perez Alarcon fills are converted to the complementary Kaitlyn Carnicella probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h73.9¢▲ above by 26.0pp
VWAP 7d73.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Kaitlyn Carnicella price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$9.4K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.