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China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elise Mertens

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $142.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $567.1KEvent: China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elise Mertens
100.0¢
Qinwen Zheng
0.1¢
Elise Mertens
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets90Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:168 trades$292.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Qinwen Zheng · $62.3K net·9 wallets·$69.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLQinwen Zheng$39.5K@ 100¢·Kkunn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Qinwen Zheng pressure: $18.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$18.6K
6h
+$46.0K
tracked
$292.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: Qinwen Zheng · $62.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +21.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 21.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Qinwen Zheng or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Qinwen Zheng and Elise Mertens in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Qinwen Zheng' if Qinwen Zheng advances against Elise Mertens. This market will resolve to 'Elise Mertens' if Elise Mertens advances against Qinwen Zheng. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Qinwen Zheng@ 79.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +15.9pp
Latest book event: Qinwen Zheng UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $163.1K → $90.7K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Qinwen Zheng; negative values favor Elise Mertens. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hQinwen Zheng · $18.6K
6hQinwen Zheng · $46.0K
24hQinwen Zheng · $53.6K

Qinwen Zheng price VWAP

Volume-weighted Qinwen Zheng price. Elise Mertens fills are converted to the complementary Qinwen Zheng probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h81.5¢▲ above by 18.4pp
VWAP 7d81.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Qinwen Zheng price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$105.8K
90¢
$18.4K
85¢
$14.1K
80¢
$33.2K
75¢
$31.9K
70¢
$227
65¢
$5.2K
60¢
$19.8K
55¢
$64.3K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLQinwen Zheng$39.5K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—12 minutes ago
BUYQinwen Zheng$13.1K@ 96.7¢
Polyplayer140xba76…e0d7
🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYQinwen Zheng$15.0K@ 79.5¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYQinwen Zheng$12.0K@ 77.0¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesQinwen Zheng$39.2K
BUY VWAP 83.2¢·15 fills
hurricanQinwen Zheng$15.0K
BUY VWAP 79.5¢·1 fill
dmoralezQinwen Zheng$14.5K
BUY VWAP 93.1¢·6 fills
redvinnyQinwen Zheng$13.7K
BUY VWAP 77.1¢·2 fills
CORGI8Elise Mertens$13.5K
BUY VWAP 42.2¢·6 fills
Polyplayer14Qinwen Zheng$13.1K
BUY VWAP 96.7¢·1 fill
Gumayusi98Qinwen Zheng$10.0K
BUY VWAP 95.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.