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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Rei Sakamoto

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $86.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $218.1KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Rei Sakamoto
86.5¢
Alex de Minaur
13.5¢
Rei Sakamoto
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets30Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:96 trades$79.6K trackedsource coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex de Minaur · $8.6K net·9 wallets·$28.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex de Minaur$8.4K@ 71¢·xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Alex de Minaur pressure: $14.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$14.9K
6h
+$10.2K
tracked
$79.6K

9 verified profitable wallets: Alex de Minaur · $8.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 55

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alex de Minaur or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Rei Sakamoto in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Rei Sakamoto. This market will resolve to 'Rei Sakamoto' if Rei Sakamoto advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Alex de Minaur UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $84.0K → $48.8K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex de Minaur; negative values favor Rei Sakamoto. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex de Minaur · $14.9K
6hAlex de Minaur · $10.2K
24hAlex de Minaur · $12.0K

Alex de Minaur price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex de Minaur price. Rei Sakamoto fills are converted to the complementary Alex de Minaur probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current86.5¢
VWAP 24h71.6¢▲ above by 14.9pp
VWAP 7d71.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex de Minaur price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$277
80¢
$8.8K
75¢
$1.5K
70¢
$36.2K
65¢
$32.8K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.