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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $186.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $499.2KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
0.1¢
Pablo Carreno Busta
100.0¢
Felix Auger-Aliassime
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets85Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:146 trades$222.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Felix Auger-Aliassime · $86.7K net·10 wallets(2🐋)·$101.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLFelix Auger-Aliassime$20.9K@ 78¢·beeemw

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Felix Auger-Aliassime pressure: $3.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.6K
6h
−$62.0K
tracked
$222.3K

10 verified profitable wallets: Felix Auger-Aliassime · $86.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 15 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Felix Auger-Aliassime or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Carreno Busta and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Felix Auger-Aliassime. This market will resolve to 'Felix Auger-Aliassime' if Felix Auger-Aliassime advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Felix Auger-Aliassime@ 95.0¢40m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Pablo Carreno Busta DOWN 8.5pp · near-book depth $118 → $3.0K · 29s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pablo Carreno Busta; negative values favor Felix Auger-Aliassime. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $3.6K
6hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $62.0K
24hFelix Auger-Aliassime · $70.8K

Pablo Carreno Busta price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pablo Carreno Busta price. Felix Auger-Aliassime fills are converted to the complementary Pablo Carreno Busta probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h16.6¢▼ below by 16.6pp
VWAP 7d16.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pablo Carreno Busta price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$58.1K
20¢
$78.4K
15¢
$2.2K
10¢
$8.1K
5¢
$24.5K
0¢
← now
$49.7K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFelix Auger-Aliassime$18.1K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYPablo Carreno Busta$11.4K@ 25.4¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLFelix Auger-Aliassime$20.9K@ 77.8¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$14.8K@ 76.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$10.5K@ 74.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYFelix Auger-Aliassime$10.0K@ 75.0¢
0000.0x49e0…9af1
🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesFelix Auger-Aliassime$34.1K
BUY VWAP 80.4¢·15 fills
FlaznorpFelix Auger-Aliassime$17.9K
BUY VWAP 77.6¢·2 fills
kkookkooFelix Auger-Aliassime$13.8K
BUY VWAP 76.2¢·2 fills
KkunnPablo Carreno Busta$12.7K
BUY VWAP 25.5¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Felix Auger-Aliassime$10.5K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
0000.Felix Auger-Aliassime$10.0K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.