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Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $26.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $202.3KEvent: Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
64.0¢
PARIVISION
36.0¢
Team Spirit
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution78Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:36 trades$90.0K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 51 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPARIVISION$17.1K@ 45¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
+$3.8K
tracked
$90.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: Team Spirit · $10.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +18.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 51 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 18.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION wins 2 or more games than Team Spirit in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Team Spirit".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Final match between Team Spirit and PARIVISION in the BLAST Slam Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION wins 2 or more games than Team Spirit in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Team Spirit". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 11, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1113 linked markets · $143.8K gross
Sunshine.Smile2 linked markets · $57.7K gross
vtcchampion522 linked markets · $53.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY PARIVISION@ 48.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +15.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Spirit@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -17.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY PARIVISION@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp
Latest book event: Team Spirit DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $807 → $581 · 42s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor PARIVISION; negative values favor Team Spirit. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPARIVISION · $5
6hPARIVISION · $3.8K
24hPARIVISION · $3.8K

PARIVISION price VWAP

Volume-weighted PARIVISION price. Team Spirit fills are converted to the complementary PARIVISION probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.0¢
VWAP 24h45.5¢▲ above by 18.5pp
VWAP 7d45.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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PARIVISION price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$6
45¢
$81.6K
40¢
$8.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPARIVISION$10.4K@ 47.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit$10.8K@ 54.0¢
Uniform1230xe548…a9fe
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYPARIVISION$17.1K@ 45.1¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111PARIVISION$46.8K
BUY VWAP 45.5¢·8 fills
Uniform123Team Spirit$16.2K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·2 fills
yishiwuchengTeam Spirit$10.8K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.