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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $198.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $535.6KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
38.5¢
Zizou Bergs
61.5¢
Carlos Alcaraz
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection34Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets62Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:160 trades$207.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $43.1K net·7 wallets(2🐋)·$69.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$34.2K@ 93¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Carlos Alcaraz SETUP
What the tape says

Carlos Alcaraz pressure: $71.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$71.0K
6h
−$87.5K
tracked
$207.3K

7 verified profitable wallets: Carlos Alcaraz · $43.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 68

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Carlos Alcaraz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Zizou Bergs and Carlos Alcaraz in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zizou Bergs' if Zizou Bergs advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Zizou Bergs. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave233 linked markets · $175 gross
0x14aa…09672 linked markets · $65 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 93.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 93.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Carlos Alcaraz DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $2.4K → $7.4K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Zizou Bergs; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $71.0K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $87.5K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $158.2K

Zizou Bergs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Zizou Bergs price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Zizou Bergs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current38.5¢
VWAP 24h21.5¢▲ above by 17.0pp
VWAP 7d21.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Zizou Bergs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$2.9K
35¢
← now
$60.6K
30¢
$39.7K
25¢
$0
20¢
$6.3K
15¢
$650
10¢
$6.0K
5¢
$92.6K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$13.4K@ 66.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$20.1K@ 65.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$10.0K@ 64.0¢
luisterra0xf828…6129
🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$34.2K@ 93.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$18.0K@ 92.7¢
0000.0x49e0…9af1
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$10.0K@ 92.0¢
Cuco840xf3b0…23a1
🐋—about 16 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Zizou Bergs vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Completed Match: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
100.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
27.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Carlos Alcaraz$34.2K
BUY VWAP 93.0¢·1 fill
KkunnCarlos Alcaraz$25.1K
BUY VWAP 65.1¢·3 fills
0000.Carlos Alcaraz$24.0K
BUY VWAP 92.5¢·2 fills
luisterraCarlos Alcaraz$13.8K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cCarlos Alcaraz$13.4K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
Cuco84Carlos Alcaraz$10.0K
BUY VWAP 92.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.