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Set 1 Winner: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
100.0¢
Zizou Bergs
0.1¢
Carlos Alcaraz
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection67Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%
24h sample:7 trades$817 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$548
6h
−$746
tracked
$817

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Zizou Bergs” if Zizou Bergs wins the first set. It will resolve to “Carlos Alcaraz” if Carlos Alcaraz wins the first set.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Zizou Bergs and Carlos Alcaraz in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Zizou Bergs” if Zizou Bergs wins the first set. It will resolve to “Carlos Alcaraz” if Carlos Alcaraz wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave233 linked markets · $175 gross
0x14aa…09672 linked markets · $65 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Zizou Bergs DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $711 → $445 · 31s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Zizou Bergs; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $548
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $746
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $746

Zizou Bergs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Zizou Bergs price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Zizou Bergs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h47.4¢▲ above by 52.6pp
VWAP 7d47.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Zizou Bergs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$30
90¢
$0
85¢
$76
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$472
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$30
20¢
$0
15¢
$208
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
36.5¢$535.6Kpriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zizou Bergs vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
27.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Completed Match: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.