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Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-5.5) vs Zizou Bergs (+5.5)

● quote 31 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
0.5¢
Carlos Alcaraz
99.5¢
Zizou Bergs
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly47Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%
24h sample:9 trades$14.5K trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$5.2K@ 51¢·vibing123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$1
6h
+$98
tracked
$14.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 31 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins 5.5 or more total games than Zizou Bergs in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Zizou Bergs".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Carlos Alcaraz could no longer have finished 5.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Zizou Bergs".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins 5.5 or more total games than Zizou Bergs in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Zizou Bergs". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Carlos Alcaraz could no longer have finished 5.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Zizou Bergs". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x4c07…62002 linked markets · $3.6K gross
astapzippo2 linked markets · $2.8K gross
0xb4c0…92d82 linked markets · $755 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Zizou Bergs UP 11.5pp · near-book depth $18 → $48 · 40s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Carlos Alcaraz; negative values favor Zizou Bergs. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $1
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $98
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $9.8K

Carlos Alcaraz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Carlos Alcaraz price. Zizou Bergs fills are converted to the complementary Carlos Alcaraz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h50.3¢▼ below by 49.8pp
VWAP 7d50.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Carlos Alcaraz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$14.2K
45¢
$98
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$1
0¢
← now
$244

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
100.0¢$894.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
100.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zizou Bergs vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bergs vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Completed Match: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.