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Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $47.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $283.9KEvent: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
78.5¢
Vitality
21.5¢
MOUZ
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 18 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:139 trades$131.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:MOUZ · $9.9K net·18 wallets·$36.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVitality$15.8K@ 65¢·ughjbnk

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Vitality pressure: $14.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$14.3K
6h
+$29.9K
tracked
$131.7K

18 verified profitable wallets: MOUZ · $9.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 53

Since latest large flow: +23.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 23.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Vitality or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win Map 3 against MOUZ.

•This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Map 3 against Vitality.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand Final match between Vitality and MOUZ in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win Map 3 against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Map 3 against Vitality. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 3 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 3. If Map 3 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
juice-fruit2 linked markets · $129.8K gross
CORGI82 linked markets · $71.9K gross
0x1610…ae493 linked markets · $67.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Vitality21m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Vitality@ 56.0¢24m ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp
Latest book event: MOUZ UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.6K → $4.7K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Vitality; negative values favor MOUZ. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVitality · $14.3K
6hVitality · $29.9K
24hVitality · $30.9K

Vitality price VWAP

Volume-weighted Vitality price. MOUZ fills are converted to the complementary Vitality probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current78.5¢
VWAP 24h60.2¢▲ above by 18.3pp
VWAP 7d60.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Vitality price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$12.2K
75¢
← now
$2.4K
70¢
$5.2K
65¢
$66.9K
60¢
$5.4K
55¢
$12.3K
50¢
$7.5K
45¢
$7.9K
40¢
$6.4K
35¢
$5.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYVitality$15.8K@ 65.0¢
ughjbnk0x5c23…cab3
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ughjbnkVitality$19.5K
BUY VWAP 65.4¢·2 fills
CORGI8MOUZ$11.5K
BUY VWAP 34.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.