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Santa Cruz 2: Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $89.5KEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien
99.8¢
Luis Guto Miguel
0.3¢
Murkel Dellien
0.5¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection90Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$36.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Luis Guto Miguel · $556 net·5 wallets·$3.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuis Guto Miguel$24.7K@ 90¢·lsiflsliggjriek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Luis Guto Miguel pressure: $31.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$31.0K
6h
+$31.0K
tracked
$36.1K

5 verified profitable wallets: Luis Guto Miguel · $556 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.5¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Luis Guto Miguel or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luis Guto Miguel and Murkel Dellien in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luis Guto Miguel' if Luis Guto Miguel advances against Murkel Dellien. This market will resolve to 'Murkel Dellien' if Murkel Dellien advances against Luis Guto Miguel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xdeff…78f82 linked markets · $1.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Luis Guto Miguel@ 93.0¢18m ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.4pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Luis Guto Miguel; negative values favor Murkel Dellien. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLuis Guto Miguel · $31.0K
6hLuis Guto Miguel · $31.0K
24hLuis Guto Miguel · $31.0K

Luis Guto Miguel price VWAP

Volume-weighted Luis Guto Miguel price. Murkel Dellien fills are converted to the complementary Luis Guto Miguel probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.8¢
VWAP 24h91.1¢▲ above by 8.7pp
VWAP 7d91.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Luis Guto Miguel price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$8.0K
90¢
$3.0K
85¢
$24.7K
80¢
$110
75¢
$259
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$43
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLuis Guto Miguel$24.7K@ 89.9¢
lsiflsliggjriek0x4f53…67d3
🐋—23 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Luis Guto Miguel (-1.5) vs Murkel Dellien (+1.5)
0.0¢$2.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Luis Guto Miguel vs. Murkel Dellien: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miguel vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miguel vs. Dellien: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miguel vs. Dellien: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miguel vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lsiflsliggjriekLuis Guto Miguel$26.4K
BUY VWAP 89.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.