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Set Handicap: Luis Guto Miguel (-1.5) vs Murkel Dellien (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $2.8KEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien
0.0¢
Luis Guto Miguel
0.0¢
Murkel Dellien
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection83Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%
24h sample:4 trades$1.2K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMurkel Dellien$1.1K@ 59¢·0xdeff…78f8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$974
6h
−$974
tracked
$1.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Luis Guto Miguel" if Luis Guto Miguel wins by 2 or more sets than Murkel Dellien, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Murkel Dellien."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Luis Guto Miguel can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Murkel Dellien."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luis Guto Miguel and Murkel Dellien in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Luis Guto Miguel" if Luis Guto Miguel wins by 2 or more sets than Murkel Dellien, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Murkel Dellien." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Luis Guto Miguel can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Murkel Dellien." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xdeff…78f82 linked markets · $1.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Luis Guto Miguel; negative values favor Murkel Dellien. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMurkel Dellien · $974
6hMurkel Dellien · $974
24hMurkel Dellien · $930

Luis Guto Miguel price VWAP

Volume-weighted Luis Guto Miguel price. Murkel Dellien fills are converted to the complementary Luis Guto Miguel probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h44.9¢▼ below by NaNpp
VWAP 7d44.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Luis Guto Miguel price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$78
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Santa Cruz 2: Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien
92.5¢$89.5Kpriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miguel vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miguel vs. Dellien: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miguel vs. Dellien: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Luis Guto Miguel vs. Murkel Dellien: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miguel vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.