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Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $26.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $389.9KEvent: LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs
69.5¢
BNK FEARX
30.5¢
JD Gaming
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution64Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$152.0K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:JD Gaming · $6.4K net·4 wallets·$6.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBNK FEARX$50.0K@ 49¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

JD Gaming pressure: $6.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.4K
6h
+$121.7K
tracked
$152.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: JD Gaming · $6.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +21.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 21.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from JD Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-12 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "BNK FEARX" if BNK FEARX wins 2 or more games than JD Gaming in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "JD Gaming".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Quarterfinal 1 match between BNK FEARX and JD Gaming in the Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "BNK FEARX" if BNK FEARX wins 2 or more games than JD Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "JD Gaming". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 12, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining games required to decide the match, including a game in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1113 linked markets · $78.1K gross
ziyoucui3 linked markets · $52.8K gross
fantasy77883 linked markets · $48.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY BNK FEARX@ 50.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY BNK FEARX@ 49.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY BNK FEARX@ 49.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY BNK FEARX@ 49.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: BNK FEARX UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $396 → $792 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor BNK FEARX; negative values favor JD Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJD Gaming · $6.4K
6hBNK FEARX · $121.7K
24hBNK FEARX · $125.8K

BNK FEARX price VWAP

Volume-weighted BNK FEARX price. JD Gaming fills are converted to the complementary BNK FEARX probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current69.5¢
VWAP 24h49.4¢▲ above by 20.1pp
VWAP 7d49.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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BNK FEARX price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$0
60¢
$43
55¢
$34
50¢
$31.6K
45¢
$120.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBNK FEARX$16.0K@ 50.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBNK FEARX$30.0K@ 49.4¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBNK FEARX$16.4K@ 49.2¢
ArturitoFilito0x336b…1233
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBNK FEARX$50.0K@ 49.3¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs
84.5¢$1.1Mpriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$922.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
62.5¢$66.2Kpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game 4: Odd/Even Total Kills?
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game 5: Odd/Even Total Kills?
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
First Blood in Game 2?
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner
62.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaBNK FEARX$110.4K
BUY VWAP 49.5¢·5 fills
ArturitoFilitoBNK FEARX$16.4K
BUY VWAP 49.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.