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Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Kalmychata - Game 1 Winner

● quote 4 min ago
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 12 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Kalmychata (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B
49.5¢
Dawn Bulls
50.5¢
Kalmychata
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:5 trades$38 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 69 min agoofficial metadata 72 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$38
tracked
$38

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 69 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 72 minutes old.
  • •Less than 11h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-12 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Dawn Bulls" if Dawn Bulls win Game 1 against Kalmychata.

•This market will resolve to "Kalmychata" if Kalmychata win Game 1 against Dawn Bulls.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Dawn Bulls and Kalmychata in the EPL Masters Play-In Group B, initially scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Dawn Bulls" if Dawn Bulls win Game 1 against Kalmychata. This market will resolve to "Kalmychata" if Kalmychata win Game 1 against Dawn Bulls. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 12, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x4513…5a382 linked markets · $16 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Dawn Bulls; negative values favor Kalmychata. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDawn Bulls · $0
6hDawn Bulls · $38
24hDawn Bulls · $38

Dawn Bulls price VWAP

Volume-weighted Dawn Bulls price. Kalmychata fills are converted to the complementary Dawn Bulls probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h53.6¢▼ below by 4.1pp
VWAP 7d53.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Dawn Bulls price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$28
50¢
$10
45¢
← now
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Kalmychata - Game 2 Winner
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.