Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.
No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 25% · priority 0
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the game-ending action (Ancient destruction or midgame forfeit) occurs during a daytime phase of the base in-game clock. This market will resolve to "No" if the game ends during a nighttime phase. Temporary nighttime effects caused by hero abilities (e.g., Night Stalker's Dark Ascension) do not affect resolution, only the base day/night cycle timer is considered.
This market is about whether Game 1 ends during the daytime phase of the Dota 2 day/night cycle. In Dota 2, the day/night cycle alternates every 5 minutes (daytime runs from 0:00–5:00, 10:00–15:00, 20:00–25:00, and so on, while nighttime runs from 5:00–10:00, 15:00–20:00, 25:00–30:00, and so on). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the game-ending action (Ancient destruction or midgame forfeit) occurs during a daytime phase of the base in-game clock. This market will resolve to "No" if the game ends during a nighttime phase. Temporary nighttime effects caused by hero abilities (e.g., Night Stalker's Dark Ascension) do not affect resolution, only the base day/night cycle timer is considered. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 12, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Largest holders
Observed net position building
Related Markets · same event first, then category
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.