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Xi Jinping out before 2027?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $691.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $55.2KEvent: Xi Jinping out before 2027?
2.9¢
YES
97.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:132 trades$24.7K trackedsource coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 63 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $5.6K net·5 wallets·$20.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$49.7K@ 97¢·bobe2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$1.3K
tracked
$24.7K

5 verified profitable wallets: NO · $5.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 63 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 44d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.7¢11d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.1¢23d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED +0.1pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 95.3¢24d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED -0.4pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.3¢32d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -0.2pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $1.3K
24hNO · $145

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.9¢
VWAP 24h2.9¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d2.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$4.3K
0¢
← now
$962.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$10.7K@ 97.4¢
Lolololol0xa745…8ca6
🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$49.7K@ 97.0¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$34.3K@ 96.6¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$11.9K@ 96.0¢
QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$17.5K@ 96.2¢0x9771…5a0a🐋—23 days ago
BUYNO$42.5K@ 95.9¢0x9771…5a0a🐋—23 days ago
SELLNO$11.2K@ 95.5¢
Top1-J0xa576…8678
🐋—24 days ago
SELLNO$12.0K@ 95.4¢
yingxer0xded8…ca0f
🐋—24 days ago
SELLNO$19.2K@ 95.8¢
yingxer0xded8…ca0f
🐋—25 days ago
BUYNO$25.1K@ 96.1¢
IGORS0x1496…ee6f
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$25.9K@ 95.9¢
IGORS0x1496…ee6f
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$14.3K@ 95.3¢
selador0x5eec…f4e2
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$14.3K@ 95.2¢
wasabi.0x924c…6db2
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$17.8K@ 95.3¢
wasabi.0x924c…6db2
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$41.3K@ 95.5¢
Bruce09130x7460…2936
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$28.2K@ 96.0¢
Bruce09130x7460…2936
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$14.3K@ 95.0¢
zhuo1an90xeff3…4e66
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 95.3¢
apts48690x6537…4232
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$17.7K@ 88.4¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$52.1K@ 93.6¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$24.1K@ 95.5¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$11.1K@ 95.8¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$14.6K@ 95.7¢
zthunderfury0xc682…17bb
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$68.1K@ 95.9¢
stupid220x8afa…adb6
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$30.7K@ 95.8¢
0xrc0x4004…c40b
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$12.4K@ 95.7¢
0xrc0x4004…c40b
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$10.5K@ 95.6¢
0xrc0x4004…c40b
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$14.4K@ 95.2¢0x3a00…159d🐋—3 months ago
SELLNO$17.4K@ 95.0¢
budu1000x43b4…ec9c
🐋—3 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bobe2No$10.4K
BUY VWAP 96.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.