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Xi Jinping out before 2027?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $198.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $98.0KEvent: Xi Jinping out before 2027?
4.3¢
YES
95.8¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection89Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:71 trades$82.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 85%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $9.0K net·4 wallets·$9.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$68.1K@ 96¢·stupid22

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $74.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$74.0K
6h
−$75.2K
tracked
$82.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $9.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 95.8¢38m ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.8¢39m ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 70.0¢3d ago
15m INVALIDATED -25.4pp1h INVALIDATED -25.3pp6h INVALIDATED -25.1pp24h INVALIDATED -25.2pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 95.9¢7d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -0.1pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $74.0K
6hNO · $75.2K
24hNO · $75.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.3¢
VWAP 24h4.3¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d5.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$3
30¢
$0
25¢
$6.4K
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.8K
10¢
$17.7K
5¢
$93.2K
0¢
← now
$588.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$41.3K@ 95.5¢0x7460…2936🐋—42 minutes ago
BUYNO$28.2K@ 96.0¢0x7460…2936🐋—42 minutes ago
SELLNO$14.3K@ 95.0¢
zhuo1an90xeff3…4e66
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 95.3¢
apts48690x6537…4232
🐋—2 days ago
SELLNO$17.7K@ 88.4¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—3 days ago
SELLNO$52.1K@ 93.6¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—3 days ago
SELLNO$24.1K@ 95.5¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—3 days ago
SELLNO$11.1K@ 95.8¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—4 days ago
SELLNO$14.6K@ 95.7¢
zthunderfury0xc682…17bb
🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$68.1K@ 95.9¢
stupid220x8afa…adb6
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$30.7K@ 95.8¢
0xrc0x4004…c40b
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$12.4K@ 95.7¢
0xrc0x4004…c40b
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$10.5K@ 95.6¢
0xrc0x4004…c40b
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$14.4K@ 95.2¢0x3a00…159d🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$17.4K@ 95.0¢
budu1000x43b4…ec9c
🐋—about 1 month ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7460…2936No$74.0K
BUY VWAP 95.7¢·3 fills
apts4869No$12.0K
BUY VWAP 95.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.