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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

● quote 15s ago
Politics→Closes: about 2 yearsLiquidity: $343.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $40.8KEvent: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
16.7¢
YES
83.4¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$1.0K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 142 min agoofficial metadata 21 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.6K net·2 wallets·$2.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$18.6K@ 84¢·alpheclabs

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$17
tracked
$1.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 142 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-11-08 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 12d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
anon0x5C7Ae2 linked markets · $23.6K gross
0xa0dc…586c2 linked markets · $6.3K gross
MSKW222222 linked markets · $3.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 23.3¢43d ago
15m STALLED +0.1pp1h STALLED +0.1pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h STALLED -1.8pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 21.0¢52d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -0.4pp6h STALLED -1.5pp24h STALLED -2.3pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $17
24hNO · $756

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current16.7¢
VWAP 24h16.7¢▼ below by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d17.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$718
15¢
← now
$111.3K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$18.6K@ 83.9¢
alpheclabs0xb4d2…ce99
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 21.4¢
bonkler0x00c7…bb17
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.