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Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner

Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B
0.0¢
Dawn Bulls
0.0¢
Spirit Academy
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection59Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets30Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:54 trades$3.7K trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Spirit Academy · $548 net·4 wallets·$1.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit Academy$1.0K@ 46¢·GOBLIN1337

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Spirit Academy pressure: $2.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.2K
6h
−$2.2K
tracked
$3.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: Spirit Academy · $548 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Spirit Academy or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Dawn Bulls" if Dawn Bulls win Game 1 against Spirit Academy.

•This market will resolve to "Spirit Academy" if Spirit Academy win Game 1 against Dawn Bulls.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Dawn Bulls and Spirit Academy in the EPL Masters Play-In Group B, initially scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Dawn Bulls" if Dawn Bulls win Game 1 against Spirit Academy. This market will resolve to "Spirit Academy" if Spirit Academy win Game 1 against Dawn Bulls. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 13, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Dawn Bulls; negative values favor Spirit Academy. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSpirit Academy · $2.2K
6hSpirit Academy · $2.2K
24hSpirit Academy · $2.2K

Dawn Bulls price VWAP

Volume-weighted Dawn Bulls price. Spirit Academy fills are converted to the complementary Dawn Bulls probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h54.5¢▼ below by NaNpp
VWAP 7d54.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Dawn Bulls price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$78
60¢
$284
55¢
$543
50¢
$2.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.