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Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B

● quote 302 min ago
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B
84.0¢
Dawn Bulls
16.0¢
Spirit Academy
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$169 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata just now

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$4
6h
+$87
tracked
$169

1 verified profitable wallet: Dawn Bulls · $25 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 302 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 30 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Dawn Bulls" if Dawn Bulls win the match against Spirit Academy.

•This market will resolve to "Spirit Academy" if Spirit Academy win the match against Dawn Bulls.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Dawn Bulls and Spirit Academy in the EPL Masters Play-In Group B, initially scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Dawn Bulls" if Dawn Bulls win the match against Spirit Academy. This market will resolve to "Spirit Academy" if Spirit Academy win the match against Dawn Bulls. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 13, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3e69…074b2 linked markets · $185 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Dawn Bulls; negative values favor Spirit Academy. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDawn Bulls · $4
6hDawn Bulls · $87
24hDawn Bulls · $122

Dawn Bulls price VWAP

Volume-weighted Dawn Bulls price. Spirit Academy fills are converted to the complementary Dawn Bulls probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current84.0¢
VWAP 24h84.0¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d84.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Dawn Bulls price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$6
90¢
$0
85¢
$100
80¢
← now
$41
75¢
$5
70¢
$17
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.