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Wuhan Tennis Open: Karolina Muchova vs Caty McNally

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $957.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $637.5KEvent: Wuhan Tennis Open: Karolina Muchova vs Caty McNally
100.0¢
Karolina Muchova
0.1¢
Caty McNally
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:316 trades$235.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Karolina Muchova · $42.4K net·16 wallets(1🐋)·$109.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKarolina Muchova$30.0K@ 65¢·fkcvffcjt

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Karolina Muchova pressure: $6.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.2K
6h
+$34.4K
tracked
$235.5K

16 verified profitable wallets: Karolina Muchova · $42.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +28.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 28.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Karolina Muchova or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Karolina Muchova and Caty McNally in the Wuhan Tennis Open, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karolina Muchova' if Karolina Muchova advances against Caty McNally. This market will resolve to 'Caty McNally' if Caty McNally advances against Karolina Muchova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave232 linked markets · $5.6K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $3.7K gross
wyshooting2 linked markets · $649 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Karolina Muchova@ 72.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -20.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Caty McNally DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $7 → $3 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Karolina Muchova; negative values favor Caty McNally. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKarolina Muchova · $6.2K
6hKarolina Muchova · $34.4K
24hKarolina Muchova · $34.4K

Karolina Muchova price VWAP

Volume-weighted Karolina Muchova price. Caty McNally fills are converted to the complementary Karolina Muchova probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h63.6¢▲ above by 36.4pp
VWAP 7d63.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Karolina Muchova price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$22.7K
90¢
$9.3K
85¢
$12.8K
80¢
$9.7K
75¢
$2.2K
70¢
$9.0K
65¢
$52.3K
60¢
$1.9K
55¢
$23.6K
50¢
$29.2K
45¢
$25.3K
40¢
$21.8K
35¢
$7.2K
30¢
$7.1K
25¢
$1.2K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKarolina Muchova$30.0K@ 65.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKarolina Muchova$10.0K@ 69.0¢
luisterra0xf828…6129
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

fkcvffcjtKarolina Muchova$30.0K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesKarolina Muchova$23.7K
BUY VWAP 56.9¢·12 fills
UpTheBluesCaty McNally$11.2K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·12 fills
RN1Caty McNally$11.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·5 fills
RN1Karolina Muchova$10.2K
BUY VWAP 42.6¢·5 fills
luisterraKarolina Muchova$10.0K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.