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Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: about 2 yearsLiquidity: $396.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $53.5KEvent: Presidential Election Winner 2028
20.9¢
YES
79.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:19 trades$588 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 432 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$39.5K@ 75¢·machbut

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$10
6h
−$344
tracked
$588

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $136 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Observed tape is 40 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 432 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-11-07 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3a53…a1622 linked markets · $16.7K gross
0x3519…41822 linked markets · $9.4K gross
anon0x5C7Ae2 linked markets · $4.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 75.6¢21d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED +0.4pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 74.8¢24d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED +0.1pp24h STALLED -1.6pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 74.6¢27d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.1pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 75.7¢28d ago
15m STALLED -0.3pp1h STALLED -0.3pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $10
6hNO · $344
24hNO · $199

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.9¢
VWAP 24h20.9¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d20.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$91.8K
20¢
← now
$285.9K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$11.7K@ 78.0¢
lastminwin0xb5d1…6e35
🐋—8 days ago
SELLNO$10.5K@ 75.1¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—20 days ago
SELLNO$23.0K@ 75.8¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—21 days ago
SELLYES$26.3K@ 24.6¢
Katello0x8628…6f0b
🐋—23 days ago
SELLNO$10.3K@ 74.8¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—24 days ago
SELLNO$11.7K@ 75.0¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—24 days ago
SELLNO$39.5K@ 74.6¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—27 days ago
SELLNO$14.3K@ 75.1¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—28 days ago
SELLNO$10.5K@ 75.5¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—28 days ago
SELLNO$17.9K@ 75.8¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—28 days ago
SELLNO$14.4K@ 76.1¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$10.1K@ 77.6¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$10.3K@ 78.1¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$10.8K@ 77.2¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$10.8K@ 77.0¢
sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$15.3K@ 76.5¢
machbut0xc2de…6781
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$15.8K@ 20.9¢0xa8a9…bb81🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.