PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: almost 2 yearsLiquidity: $248.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $74.9KEvent: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

16.1¢
YES
83.9¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly6Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 19 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:58 trades$13.5K trackedsource coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $6.6K net·19 wallets(1🐋)·$30.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$10.0K@ 14¢·Jsram

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$116
6h
+$331
tracked
$13.5K

19 verified profitable wallets: YES · $6.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-11-08 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 49d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xd961…858f2 linked markets · $25.3K gross
PantheraUncia3 linked markets · $18.3K gross
Jsram2 linked markets · $18.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $116
6hYES · $331
24hYES · $10.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current16.1¢
VWAP 24h16.95¢▼ below by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d13.51¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$1.0K
15¢
← now
$22.5K
10¢
$96.0K
5¢
$4.0K
0¢
$40.3K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$10.0K@ 14.08¢
Jsram0x8372…5223
🐋—3 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3.55¢$224.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.95¢$106.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3.25¢$69.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.7¢$58.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.15¢$48.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.55¢$42.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.45¢$34.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3.45¢$33.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x0c15…9a45Yes$16.5K
BUY VWAP 12.33¢·4 fills
JsramYes$10.0K
BUY VWAP 14.08¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.