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Spread: South Carolina (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $58.2KEvent: Tennessee vs. South Carolina

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

49.5¢
South Carolina
50.5¢
Tennessee
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:23 trades$18.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tennessee · $7.1K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$20.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTennessee$13.7K@ 51¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$1
6h
−$10.5K
tracked
$18.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: Tennessee · $7.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "South Carolina" if South Carolina win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tennessee".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 24 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Carolina" if South Carolina win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tennessee". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ArielFilipino2 linked markets · $34.2K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $3.4K gross
0x0f98…f6c52 linked markets · $17 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor South Carolina; negative values favor Tennessee. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTennessee · $1
6hTennessee · $10.5K
24hTennessee · $10.5K

South Carolina price VWAP

Volume-weighted South Carolina price. Tennessee fills are converted to the complementary South Carolina probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h49.36¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d50.01¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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South Carolina price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$13.2K
45¢
← now
$17.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTennessee$13.7K@ 50.56¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Tennessee vs. South Carolina
45.5¢$77.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: South Carolina (-1.5)
52.5¢$13.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tennessee vs. South Carolina: O/U 51.5
—$28priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tennessee vs. South Carolina: O/U 49.5
—$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Tennessee (-17.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Tennessee (-20.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Tennessee (-14.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Tennessee (-16.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-TempTennessee$13.7K
BUY VWAP 50.56¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.