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Spread: Texas (-2.5)

● quote 25s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $53.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $32.9KEvent: Ole Miss vs. Texas

Indicative prices · 25s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

55.0¢
Texas
45.0¢
Ole Miss
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution78Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:16 trades$18.5K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 125 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Texas · $18.3K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$18.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTexas$18.3K@ 58¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$100
tracked
$18.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: Texas · $18.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 125 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Texas" if Texas win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ole Miss".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 24 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas" if Texas win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ole Miss". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ArielFilipino3 linked markets · $51.2K gross
mooseborzoii2 linked markets · $9.1K gross
0x7845…67752 linked markets · $20 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Texas@ 57.0¢21h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Texas; negative values favor Ole Miss. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTexas · $0
6hTexas · $100
24hTexas · $18.4K

Texas price VWAP

Volume-weighted Texas price. Ole Miss fills are converted to the complementary Texas probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current55.0¢
VWAP 24h57.65¢▼ below by 2.6pp
VWAP 7d57.65¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Texas price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$18.5K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTexas$18.3K@ 57.66¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—about 22 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Texas (-3.5)
47.5¢$36.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ole Miss vs. Texas
41.5¢$30.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ole Miss vs. Texas: O/U 51.5
—$7.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ole Miss vs. Texas: O/U 53.5
—$987priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ole Miss vs. Texas: O/U 55.5
—$820priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Ole Miss (-16.5)
—$9priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Ole Miss (-3.5)
—$3priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Ole Miss (-17.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ArielFilipinoTexas$18.3K
BUY VWAP 57.66¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.