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Wuhan Tennis Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $166.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $557.8KEvent: Wuhan Tennis Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula
44.0¢
Jelena Ostapenko
56.0¢
Jessica Pegula
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets25Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:131 trades$220.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jessica Pegula · $5.9K net·9 wallets·$23.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJessica Pegula$70.8K@ 85¢·1827575782

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Jessica Pegula pressure: $26.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$26.8K
6h
−$156.0K
tracked
$220.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: Jessica Pegula · $5.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 53

Since latest liquidity absorption: -36.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jessica Pegula or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jelena Ostapenko and Jessica Pegula in the Wuhan Tennis Open, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jelena Ostapenko' if Jelena Ostapenko advances against Jessica Pegula. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Jelena Ostapenko. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $13.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Jessica Pegula1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Jessica Pegula@ 92.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.8pp1h INVALIDATED -25.1pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Jessica Pegula@ 92.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.8pp1h INVALIDATED -25.1pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Jessica Pegula@ 89.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.8pp1h INVALIDATED -22.1pp
Latest book event: Jessica Pegula DOWN 6.3pp · near-book depth $11.8K → $14.8K · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jelena Ostapenko; negative values favor Jessica Pegula. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJessica Pegula · $26.8K
6hJessica Pegula · $156.0K
24hJessica Pegula · $164.5K

Jelena Ostapenko price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jelena Ostapenko price. Jessica Pegula fills are converted to the complementary Jelena Ostapenko probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.0¢
VWAP 24h14.3¢▲ above by 29.7pp
VWAP 7d14.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jelena Ostapenko price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$4.5K
35¢
$1.0K
30¢
$6.9K
25¢
$16.5K
20¢
$1.0K
15¢
$88.3K
10¢
$25.2K
5¢
$66.7K
0¢
$10.7K

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJessica Pegula$20.0K@ 88.9¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYJessica Pegula$16.8K@ 91.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJessica Pegula$14.9K@ 92.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJessica Pegula$11.1K@ 94.0¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJessica Pegula$70.8K@ 84.7¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula
0.0¢$3.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Jessica Pegula (-1.5) vs Jelena Ostapenko (+1.5)
0.0¢$2.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Jessica Pegula (-4.5) vs Jelena Ostapenko (+4.5)
0.0¢$1.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jelena Ostapenko vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$119priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ostapenko vs. Pegula: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$102priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ostapenko vs. Pegula: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢$4priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ostapenko vs. Pegula: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ostapenko vs. Pegula: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

1827575782Jessica Pegula$90.1K
BUY VWAP 85.5¢·3 fills
tennischampJessica Pegula$37.6K
BUY VWAP 91.6¢·3 fills
hurricanJessica Pegula$20.0K
BUY VWAP 88.9¢·1 fill
Gumayusi98Jessica Pegula$12.0K
BUY VWAP 92.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.