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Wuhan Tennis Open: Karolina Muchova vs Diana Shnaider

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $127.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $574.4KEvent: Wuhan Tennis Open: Karolina Muchova vs Diana Shnaider
36.5¢
Karolina Muchova
63.5¢
Diana Shnaider
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection32Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets2Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:159 trades$256.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Diana Shnaider · $3.0K net·13 wallets(2🐋)·$123.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDiana Shnaider$27.8K@ 48¢·Velin217

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Diana Shnaider pressure: $81.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$81.2K
6h
−$104.4K
tracked
$256.3K

13 verified profitable wallets: Diana Shnaider · $3.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 52

Since latest market sweep: +15.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 15.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Diana Shnaider or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-22 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Karolina Muchova and Diana Shnaider in the Wuhan Tennis Open, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karolina Muchova' if Karolina Muchova advances against Diana Shnaider. This market will resolve to 'Diana Shnaider' if Diana Shnaider advances against Karolina Muchova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Diana Shnaider11m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Karolina Muchova20m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASESELL Diana Shnaider20m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Diana Shnaider@ 49.0¢26m ago
15m CONFIRMED +17.0pp
Latest book event: Diana Shnaider DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $64.9K → $36.9K · 41s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Karolina Muchova; negative values favor Diana Shnaider. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDiana Shnaider · $81.2K
6hDiana Shnaider · $104.4K
24hDiana Shnaider · $106.2K

Karolina Muchova price VWAP

Volume-weighted Karolina Muchova price. Diana Shnaider fills are converted to the complementary Karolina Muchova probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h49.3¢▼ below by 12.8pp
VWAP 7d49.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Karolina Muchova price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$8.4K
55¢
$44.5K
50¢
$62.3K
45¢
$105.5K
40¢
$12.5K
35¢
← now
$7.7K
30¢
$15.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDiana Shnaider$11.1K@ 52.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYDiana Shnaider$11.1K@ 52.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYDiana Shnaider$27.8K@ 47.6¢
Velin2170x9a5e…cd58
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDiana Shnaider$23.2K@ 48.4¢
Velin2170x9a5e…cd58
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDiana Shnaider$13.0K@ 52.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKarolina Muchova$11.4K@ 49.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 1 Winner: Karolina Muchova vs Diana Shnaider
0.0¢$5.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Muchova vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Karolina Muchova vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$358priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Muchova vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$127priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Karolina Muchova (-1.5) vs Diana Shnaider (+1.5)
0.0¢$94priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Muchova vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢$34priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Karolina Muchova (-1.5) vs Diana Shnaider (+1.5)
0.0¢$1priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Muchova vs. Shnaider: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Velin217Diana Shnaider$51.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesKarolina Muchova$38.3K
BUY VWAP 53.5¢·20 fills
RN1Diana Shnaider$22.2K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Karolina Muchova$17.5K
BUY VWAP 52.2¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesDiana Shnaider$16.7K
BUY VWAP 52.2¢·6 fills
kkookkooDiana Shnaider$13.6K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·3 fills
KkunnDiana Shnaider$13.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.