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Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?

● quote just now
Tech→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $7.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $379.6KEvent: Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?
88.5¢
YES
11.5¢
NO
7.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection39Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution57Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:93 trades$69.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $20.3K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$20.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$19.3K@ 10¢·dromedaryy

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: $24.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$24.6K
6h
+$24.6K
tracked
$69.7K

5 verified profitable wallets: YES · $20.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
7.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 79% · priority 71

Since latest large flow: +53.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 7.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 53.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if any version of the Roadster (including a prototype or other non-final version) that is physically present at the event performs a maneuver, under its own power, that makes the entire vehicle, including all four wheels, completely airborne, with no part contacting the ground or any supporting structure, for one continuous interval of at least 1.0 seconds. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

•This market is specifically about the Tesla event scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 8:55 PM ET. A demonstration at a separate location qualifies if Tesla presents it live as part of the event. A subsequent standalone demonstration does not qualify unless it forms part of an officially announced continuation of the event. If this event is postponed or rescheduled, this market will remain open and will resolve based on the rescheduled event, provided it takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The qualifying maneuver must occur by that deadline. If no qualifying maneuver has occurred by then, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

Tesla is holding an event on October 15, 2026 at 8:55 PM ET where the company is expected to showcase an updated version of the Tesla Roadster. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any version of the Roadster (including a prototype or other non-final version) that is physically present at the event performs a maneuver, under its own power, that makes the entire vehicle, including all four wheels, completely airborne, with no part contacting the ground or any supporting structure, for one continuous interval of at least 1.0 seconds. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying maneuver may use any method of propulsion (e.g., thrusters, suspension, or any other onboard mechanism), but the vehicle must propel itself into the air entirely on its own. A powered jump qualifies even if onboard propulsion does not continuously support the vehicle while airborne. Remote control is permitted. The following will NOT qualify for a "Yes" resolution: - The vehicle using its own momentum to launch off a ramp, incline, or similar structure - The vehicle being lifted, thrown, or otherwise assisted in becoming or remaining airborne by any external means, including but not limited to cables, cranes, rigging, drones, or people - The vehicle using an external power supply during the maneuver - Any footage, simulation, animation, or pre-recorded video of the vehicle appearing to fly, shown at the event but not performed live Safety tethers or other external connections are permitted only if they provide no lifting force, support, propulsion, or power during the qualifying maneuver. Recordings of a maneuver performed live at the qualifying event may be used as evidence; demonstrations recorded before the event and merely played during it do not qualify. This market is specifically about the Tesla event scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 8:55 PM ET. A demonstration at a separate location qualifies if Tesla presents it live as part of the event. A subsequent standalone demonstration does not qualify unless it forms part of an officially announced continuation of the event. If this event is postponed or rescheduled, this market will remain open and will resolve based on the rescheduled event, provided it takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The qualifying maneuver must occur by that deadline. If no qualifying maneuver has occurred by then, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be video of the qualifying event, including Tesla’s official livestream. Official Tesla statements or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to resolve this market, provided they establish that the maneuver met the conditions above. A general claim that the Roadster “flew,” without establishing those conditions, will not alone qualify.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY YES3m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY YES3m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 39.0¢5m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 42.0¢6m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $1 → $114 · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $24.6K
6hYES · $24.6K
24hYES · $30.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current88.5¢
VWAP 24h35.8¢▲ above by 52.7pp
VWAP 7d36.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$3.4K
85¢
← now
$10.1K
80¢
$2.6K
75¢
$1.8K
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.6K
60¢
$1.5K
55¢
$2.8K
50¢
$5.0K
45¢
$5.7K
40¢
$628
35¢
$117
30¢
$1.0K
25¢
$2.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$8.4K
10¢
$25.1K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$19.3K@ 10.0¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—11 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

dromedaryyYes$19.3K
BUY VWAP 10.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.