PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

● quote 57s ago
Tech→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $8.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $50.7KEvent: OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
28.0¢
YES
72.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets29Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution65Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$12.6K trackedsource coverage 25%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 518 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $5.0K net·2 wallets·$11.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$9.9K@ 83¢·CryptoLBL

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$12.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $5.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 518 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $6.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current28.0¢
VWAP 24h18.0¢▲ above by 10.0pp
VWAP 7d20.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$1.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$21.4K
10¢
$1.0K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
3.5¢$217.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
0.4¢$101.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
96.3¢$58.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
84.5¢$54.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
9.4¢$51.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
2.3¢$46.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
0.3¢$41.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.