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Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?

● quote 12s ago
Culture→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $13.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $92.8KEvent: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?
35.0¢
YES
65.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets25Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution67Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$9.4K trackedsource coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 211 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$2.7K@ 22¢·NameWater

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$134
tracked
$9.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 211 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz1B4B2yBZY
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer video gets in the first 7 days after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel. This market may not resolve until the 7 days are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is Rockstar Games' YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@RockstarGames), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers only to the "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" video posted by Rockstar Games (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz1B4B2yBZY).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
NameWater2 linked markets · $8.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $471 → $452 · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $134
24hYES · $1.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current35.0¢
VWAP 24h29.3¢▲ above by 5.6pp
VWAP 7d29.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$4
55¢
$503
50¢
$104
45¢
$8
40¢
$157
35¢
← now
$2.4K
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.1K
20¢
$5.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.