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Wuhan Tennis Open: Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek

● quote 15 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $247.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $536.4KEvent: Wuhan Tennis Open: Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek
0.1¢
Ann Li
99.9¢
Iga Swiatek
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets78Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:163 trades$211.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 16 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Iga Swiatek · $77.2K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$98.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIga Swiatek$33.4K@ 94¢·0000a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$700
6h
−$127.2K
tracked
$211.3K

11 verified profitable wallets: Iga Swiatek · $77.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 15 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 35 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ann Li and Iga Swiatek in the Wuhan Tennis Open, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ann Li' if Ann Li advances against Iga Swiatek. This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' if Iga Swiatek advances against Ann Li. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
RoadTo1MillionUsd2 linked markets · $600 gross
0xd304…3ed22 linked markets · $141 gross
0xbfd7…f0bf2 linked markets · $40 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Iga Swiatek@ 95.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.1pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Ann Li DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $14.7K → $8.3K · 26s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ann Li; negative values favor Iga Swiatek. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hIga Swiatek · $700
6hIga Swiatek · $127.2K
24hIga Swiatek · $131.8K

Ann Li price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ann Li price. Iga Swiatek fills are converted to the complementary Ann Li probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h11.7¢▼ below by 11.6pp
VWAP 7d11.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ann Li price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$11.0K
20¢
$51.0K
15¢
$12.0K
10¢
$27.1K
5¢
$85.8K
0¢
← now
$24.4K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYIga Swiatek$33.4K@ 94.0¢
0000a0xee15…112c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYIga Swiatek$12.0K@ 78.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Iga Swiatek (-5.5) vs Ann Li (+5.5)
0.0¢$10.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Wuhan Tennis Open: Completed Match: Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek
0.0¢$5.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Iga Swiatek (-1.5) vs Ann Li (+1.5)
0.0¢$2.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Li vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$512priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek
0.0¢$479priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ann Li vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$410priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Li vs. Swiatek: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Li vs. Swiatek: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesIga Swiatek$51.7K
BUY VWAP 92.4¢·20 fills
0000aIga Swiatek$33.4K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill
dmoralezIga Swiatek$13.8K
BUY VWAP 91.8¢·7 fills
ferrariChampions2026Iga Swiatek$13.0K
BUY VWAP 78.2¢·2 fills
KkunnAnn Li$11.9K
BUY VWAP 20.5¢·5 fills
CripplingHeadshotIga Swiatek$11.0K
BUY VWAP 74.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.