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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5

● quote just now
Sports→BaseballCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $282.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $184.5KEvent: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
49.5¢
Over
50.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection41Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$87.4K tracked18% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $1.5K net·2 wallets·$3.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$26.0K@ 51¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Over pressure: $36.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$36.0K
6h
+$38.9K
tracked
$87.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Over · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Over or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians combine to score 7 or more runs in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 7, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for October 16 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians combine to score 7 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 7, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 17h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
cryptoqan0n2 linked markets · $39 gross
0xf276…7b1e2 linked markets · $3 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 50.0¢27m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 53.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $36.0K
6hOver · $38.9K
24hOver · $39.9K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h51.3¢▼ below by 1.8pp
VWAP 7d51.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$86.5K
45¢
← now
$880
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$10.0K@ 51.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYOver$26.0K@ 51.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYOver$21.3K@ 52.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaOver$36.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills
SDTradingOver$21.3K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
quavooUnder$20.7K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.