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Santa Cruz 2: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Roncadelli

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $134.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $322.5KEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Roncadelli
100.0¢
Juan Manuel La Serna
0.1¢
Franco Roncadelli
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets68Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:182 trades$120.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Juan Manuel La Serna · $20.2K net·14 wallets·$29.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLJuan Manuel La Serna$13.3K@ 95¢·bankside

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Franco Roncadelli pressure: $2.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.9K
6h
+$21.0K
tracked
$120.7K

14 verified profitable wallets: Juan Manuel La Serna · $20.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Franco Roncadelli or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel La Serna and Franco Roncadelli in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel La Serna' if Juan Manuel La Serna advances against Franco Roncadelli. This market will resolve to 'Franco Roncadelli' if Franco Roncadelli advances against Juan Manuel La Serna. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Juan Manuel La Serna@ 95.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -39.0pp1h INVALIDATED -10.9pp
Latest book event: Franco Roncadelli DOWN 3.5pp · near-book depth $9.6K → $895 · 18s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Juan Manuel La Serna; negative values favor Franco Roncadelli. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFranco Roncadelli · $2.9K
6hJuan Manuel La Serna · $21.0K
24hJuan Manuel La Serna · $21.2K

Juan Manuel La Serna price VWAP

Volume-weighted Juan Manuel La Serna price. Franco Roncadelli fills are converted to the complementary Juan Manuel La Serna probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h80.7¢▲ above by 19.3pp
VWAP 7d80.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Juan Manuel La Serna price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$20.5K
90¢
$17.0K
85¢
$6.9K
80¢
$12.4K
75¢
$33.7K
70¢
$12.7K
65¢
$673
60¢
$5.4K
55¢
$1.4K
50¢
$403
45¢
$9.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLJuan Manuel La Serna$11.6K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—13 minutes ago
SELLJuan Manuel La Serna$13.3K@ 94.7¢
bankside0xc457…890e
🐋—16 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesJuan Manuel La Serna$19.4K
BUY VWAP 79.8¢·18 fills
0x1610…ae49Juan Manuel La Serna$18.7K
BUY VWAP 76.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.