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Game Spread: Franco Roncadelli (-1.5) vs Juan Manuel La Serna (+1.5)

Sports→TennisSettlement: NOLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Santa Cruz 2: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Roncadelli
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-23 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Franco Roncadelli" if Franco Roncadelli wins 1.5 or more total games than Juan Manuel La Serna in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 4:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Juan Manuel La Serna".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Franco Roncadelli could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Juan Manuel La Serna".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Franco Roncadelli" if Franco Roncadelli wins 1.5 or more total games than Juan Manuel La Serna in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 4:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Juan Manuel La Serna". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Franco Roncadelli could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Juan Manuel La Serna". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 57m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 57m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $0
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.