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Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-2.5) vs Rafael Jodar (+2.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $1.4KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev
0.0¢
Daniil Medvedev
0.0¢
Rafael Jodar
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%
24h sample:1 trades$1.4K trackedsource coverage 97%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 77 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$1.4K@ 51¢·shreddeds

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Daniil Medvedev pressure: $1.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.4K
6h
+$1.4K
tracked
$1.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Official market metadata is 77 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Daniil Medvedev or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins 2.5 or more total games than Rafael Jodar in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rafael Jodar".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Daniil Medvedev could no longer have finished 2.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Rafael Jodar".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins 2.5 or more total games than Rafael Jodar in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rafael Jodar". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Daniil Medvedev could no longer have finished 2.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Rafael Jodar". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo3 linked markets · $517 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Rafael Jodar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $1.4K
6hDaniil Medvedev · $1.4K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $1.4K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Rafael Jodar fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h50.7¢▼ below by NaNpp
VWAP 7d50.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev
35.5¢$55.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rafael Jodar vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
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Jodar vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5
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Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Rafael Jodar (+1.5)
0.0¢$839priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jodar vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$452priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev
0.0¢$169priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jodar vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢$100priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jodar vs. Medvedev: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.