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Spread: Zalgiris Kaunas (-10.5)

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $38.7KEvent: Zalgiris Kaunas vs. ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne
40.0¢
Zalgiris Kaunas
60.0¢
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets74Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$15.2K trackedsource coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 101 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Zalgiris Kaunas · $11.2K net·3 wallets·$15.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYZalgiris Kaunas$2.8K@ 48¢·HomeRunHazard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$11.2K
tracked
$15.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: Zalgiris Kaunas · $11.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 101 minutes old.
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/euroleague/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Zalgiris Kaunas" if Zalgiris Kaunas win the game by 11 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Euroleague Basketball game, scheduled for October 23 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Zalgiris Kaunas" if Zalgiris Kaunas win the game by 11 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on euroleaguebasketball.net.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Zalgiris Kaunas; negative values favor ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hZalgiris Kaunas · $0
6hZalgiris Kaunas · $11.2K
24hZalgiris Kaunas · $11.2K

Zalgiris Kaunas price VWAP

Volume-weighted Zalgiris Kaunas price. ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne fills are converted to the complementary Zalgiris Kaunas probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.0¢
VWAP 24h48.9¢▼ below by 8.9pp
VWAP 7d48.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Zalgiris Kaunas price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$8.6K
45¢
$6.6K
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.